The Mandalorian and Grogu's Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 62%, and with 89% on the fan-generated Popcornmeter—along with an impressive CinemaScore—it seems Lucasfilm has delivered a genuine crowd-pleaser with its first Star Wars movie since 2019.
Will that translate to box office success? While some insiders have claimed that merchandise is vastly more important than ticket sales, the movie is still off to a solid start, with $33 million on Friday and an estimated $25.5 million on Saturday for a revised $97 million to $98 million four-day debut. That's up from yesterday's $91 million to $96 million predictions.
The Mandalorian and Grogu's Saturday is higher than Solo: A Star Wars Story's $24.6 million, so a $100 million opening is still in play.
The 2018 spin-off also opened over Memorial Day weekend. While Solo was considered a box office disappointment, a change in directors and extensive reshoots meant it cost almost as much as its eventual global haul: $393 million.
Jon Favreau's big-screen follow-up to The Mandalorian, in contrast, cost a modest $160 million to produce, meaning it should break even. Profitability is another matter, but as one talent rep tells Deadline, "Sometimes these movies make more in merchandise than the actual movie."
That's an interesting narrative, but The Mandalorian franchise does shift a lot of toys, and the adorable Grogu has a huge role in this movie. Word-of-mouth will be crucial, and could help this fan-favourite duo soar in the weeks ahead.
The trade has heard that the international box office is somewhere around $69 million, pointing to The Mandalorian and Grogu having a worldwide bow of $167 million. That's slightly above the original $160 million estimate, but that overseas number has dipped from an extended $80 million.
Elsewhere, Focus Features and filmmaker Curry Barker's horror hit Obsession had a strong second weekend with an expected $19.9 million, an increase from its $17.2 million debut. Michael is eyeing a third-place finish with $18.5 million (also over three days) after crossing $300 million domestically on Friday. Globally, it's closing in on $800 million.
Further down the top ten is Mortal Kombat II, which scored a solid $1.5 million on Friday to hit $68 million in the U.S. It should make something between $5 million and $6 million during its third weekend, and it has all the makings of a modest hit for Warner Bros.
"The Mandalorian and Grogu is a fun, pulpy reminder that Star Wars doesn’t need to grow up; it just needs to be entertaining," we said in our review. "Jon Favreau's action-packed love letter delivers exactly the crowd-pleasing adventure fans have been craving."
In The Mandalorian and Grogu, the evil Empire has fallen, and Imperial warlords remain scattered throughout the galaxy. As the fledgling New Republic works to protect everything the Rebellion fought for, they have enlisted the help of legendary Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his young apprentice Grogu.
Directed by Jon Favreau, the movie also stars Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White. It's produced by Jon Favreau, Kathleen Kennedy, Dave Filoni, and Ian Bryce, with music composed by Ludwig Göransson.
The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives in theaters on May 22.