Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's a super box office flop.
In a crushing blow to DC Studios for its second theatrical release, Supergirl is landing below expectations, with a projected $38 million opening weekend. Bearing in mind that initial estimates had the movie touching down between $55 million and $70 million, big questions will now be asked about where it all went wrong for the Woman of Tomorrow.
Some might blame the negative reviews from critics, but at 56%, this isn't another Fantastic Four (9%) or Morbius (15%). Supergirl is, however, comparable to the latter, as it's opened lower than the Living Vampire's 2022 movie, which had a $39 million start. The DCU movie's opening is also only slightly above Joker: Folie à Deux's $37.7 million in 2024.
Box office expert Gitesh Pandya, meanwhile, cautions, "Saturday ($10.7M) witnessed a steep 41% drop for Supergirl from opening day Friday ($18.2M), which [included] all pre-shows. For Sunday ($9.1M), [the] studio is projecting just 15% dip, which seems optimistic. [This] means final opening [weekend box office] might actually be below $38M, maybe closer to $37M."
Those hoping for good news overseas will need to rein in expectations, as Supergirl has had a $30 million launch for a projected $68 million global debut. According to The Wrap, Supergirl will not reach the $300 million needed to break even, and $200 million could also be off the table.
DC Studios stands to lose a lot on the Maid of Might's big-screen return. With Paramount's acquisition of Warner Bros. looming, James Gunn and Peter Safran will need Clayface and Man of Tomorrow to be mighty at the box office if they hope to stick around under the new regime.
At this point, it's hard not to wonder whether the DC brand might not be better suited to standalone tales like The Batman, Joker, and Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight Trilogy, as an MCU-style shared world isn't something the DCEU or DCU has, so far, stuck the landing on.
The big winner this weekend was Toy Story 5, which scored a $70 million second weekend. Despite losing PLF screens to Supergirl, the Pixar sequel had a mere -56.2% drop and will pass $300 million in North America tomorrow.
Ultimately, Toy Story 5 could earn as much as $500 million in the U.S. alone. As of now, it's surpassed $550 million worldwide, with $600 million coming on Tuesday and $750+ million by next weekend. $1 billion is guaranteed, and depending on how Minions & Monsters performs, it could go as high as $1.2 billion and beyond.
Disney will likely be less enthused by The Mandalorian and Grogu, which, after reaching a total of $175.3 million in North America this weekend, will become the first Star Wars movie not to surpass $200 million domestically. We've heard that Disney viewed the movie as a means to boost interest in merchandise and its theme parks (a questionable excuse), but all eyes will now be on next summer's Star Wars: Starfighter.
That and The Mandalorian and Grogu were greenlit and produced on former Lucasfilm President Kathleen Kennedy's watch, so it's down to Dave Filoni to now restore Star Wars to its former glory.
Supergirl is now playing in theaters.