The Mandalorian and Grogu isn't scoring glowing reviews (at least based on its Rotten Tomatoes score), but it's "Fresh" on Rotten Tomatoes and on track for an $80 million opening—across the four-day Memorial Day weekend—in North America.
Overseas, the movie is eyeing a similar $80 million start, according to Deadline (via SFFGazette.com). That's a $160 million global debut, for a movie with a reported production budget of $165 million start.
That's slightly ahead of Solo: A Star Wars Story's worldwide opening in 2018, when it grossed $103 million in the U.S. and $52 million overseas for a combined $155 million. That recast an iconic character, whereas this is the first movie based on a Disney+ streaming series.
Ticket presales for The Mandalorian and Grogu currently sit at $25 million in North America, which is ahead of Project Hail Mary at the same point in time and neck and neck with Avatar: Fire and Ash. The former had an $80.5 million three-day start, while the latter kicked off its run with $89.1 million.
As the trade points out, "While Star Wars fans cry and demand that the studio deliver a Kylo Ren movie to the point of flying biplanes over the Burbank lot, the studio’s thinking for a Mandalorian and Grogu movie was a pure overall franchise play from parks to toys. [There have] been 13 million units of Grogu merchandise sold during the series first two years on Disney+. "
Ultimately, this is a Star Wars movie, and interest could surge over the weekend. That will depend on word of mouth, and the weeks ahead will be crucial for The Mandalorian and Grogu's eventual financial success.
We don't have a marketing budget for the movie as of now, but anything under $500 million (arguably $600 million) is likely to be considered a disappointment by Disney. The Mandalorian was a big draw on Disney+ when it launched, but interest had waned by the lore-heavy Season 3, and Din Djarin and The Child have been off our screens for over three years now.
Have moviegoers moved on from Star Wars, or is The Mandalorian simply not a big-screen franchise? Whatever the answers are, it's too soon to write this one off, and we'll keep you updated this weekend with all the latest box office figures as they come in.
In The Mandalorian and Grogu, the evil Empire has fallen, and Imperial warlords remain scattered throughout the galaxy. As the fledgling New Republic works to protect everything the Rebellion fought for, they have enlisted the help of legendary Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his young apprentice Grogu.
Directed by Jon Favreau, the movie also stars Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White. It's produced by Jon Favreau, Kathleen Kennedy, Dave Filoni, and Ian Bryce, with music composed by Ludwig Göransson.
The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives in theaters on May 22.