The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives in theaters next month, and as we first reported on SFFGazette.com, we have some opening weekend box office estimates. According to The Hollywood Reporter, tracking suggests the movie is eyeing an $80 million debut at the North American box office over the four-day Memorial Day weekend.
This is said to be in line with Disney and Lucasfilm's expectations, but with no word on the movie's budget, it's not clear how much this big-screen follow-up to The Mandalorian will ultimately need to earn worldwide to be considered a hit.
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker had a three-day opening of $177.3 million in 2019, while Solo: A Star Wars Story grossed $84 million domestically over the three-day Memorial Day weekend and $104 million for the four days.
While an $80 million start is a franchise low for the Disney-era Star Wars movies, the trade notes that "While it is the first Star Wars film on the big screen since COVID, it doesn’t face the same pressure that a title in the core franchise would."
Disney is hoping families will turn up in full force for The Mandalorian and Grogu, and marketing for the movie is expected to hit hyperspeed on May 4 (Star Wars Day). For starters, 25 minutes of footage from the movie will be shown in select IMAX theaters across the globe.
The Mandalorian was a huge hit for Disney+ when it launched in 2019. Season 3 wrapped up in 2023, meaning the Din Djarin and The Child have been absent from our screens—and from the minds of casual and hardcore fans alike—for three years.
While the TV series ended on a fairly definitive note, it left a few dangling plot threads (for example, we still don't know who Grogu was separated from Jedi Master Kelleran Beq). How filmmaker Jon Favreau handles that remains to be seen, as the upcoming movie is expected to be largely standalone. That's to make it easy to follow and not a story that requires viewers to brush up on at least 24 episodes of television to understand.
If The Mandalorian and Grogu isn't a box office hit, the future of these characters will be hard to predict. They may return to Disney+ or be shelved, though the latter doesn't seem likely when Grogu is such a big merchandise seller. The duo's Disney Parks presence has also been increased.
In The Mandalorian and Grogu, the evil Empire has fallen, and Imperial warlords remain scattered throughout the galaxy. As the fledgling New Republic works to protect everything the Rebellion fought for, they have enlisted the help of legendary Mandalorian bounty hunter Din Djarin (Pedro Pascal) and his young apprentice Grogu.
Directed by Jon Favreau, the movie also stars Sigourney Weaver and Jeremy Allen White. It's produced by Jon Favreau, Kathleen Kennedy, Dave Filoni, and Ian Bryce, with music composed by Ludwig Göransson.
The Mandalorian and Grogu arrives in theaters on May 22.