UPDATE: Halloween is historically one of the worst weekends of the year for box office takings, which isn't doing Clayface any favours. The latest projections from Variety point to You Can See Everything making $10.65 million by Sunday, and the DCU body horror not too far behind with $10.25 million (it's a tight race, but the documentary has the edge for now).
Whether Halloween is an anomaly for Clayface or a sign that it was a front-loaded release will be decided from Monday onwards. Box office analyst Gitesh Pandya believes that, based on its current trajectory, the DC Studios title will finish its domestic run with $65 million. Clayface has so far made $31.4 million overseas; depending on its marketing spend, the break-even point mentioned below is attainable.
It's unclear what DC Studios and its new owners, Paramount Pictures, would consider a win for Clayface, but more positive reviews and no financial loss might be enough this early into the DCU. Still, "hit" status likely isn't in the cards for this one.
It's not shaping up to be a particularly Happy Halloween for DC Studios' Clayface. Deadline currently expects Nathan Fielder's surprise hit, You Can See Everything, to take the top spot at the North American box office during its third weekend in theaters.
After earning an estimated $3.2 million on Friday, the Elizabeth Holmes documentary is on track to make $10 million to $11 million. Clayface remained at #1 until Wednesday with a steady hold, but You Can See Everything pushed it from the top spot the following day.
It's going to be a tight race for the top spot, as the trade expects Clayface to also land somewhere around $10 million after a $3.1 million Friday. However, the majority of analysts are favouring You Can See Everything, due to it slightly outpacing the R-rated body horror in recent days.
Clayface was never expected to be a record-breaking hit, and it didn't need to be with a mere $44 million production budget (there's still no word on how much DC Studios spent on marketing). However, with an estimated $110 million to $130 million break-even point, the DCU movie needs legs to hit that and, hopefully, become profitable.
A 58+% drop from its $24 million opening weekend isn't the sort of hold you'd hope for from a horror movie with an A- CinemaScore and a 94% Popcornmeter rating. The positive word of mouth is there, but people aren't buying tickets.
While it's easy to make excuses for Clayface, the fact that it's a low-budget horror movie pales in comparison to it being a DC movie (and it was heavily promoted as one). The DC IP is one of the biggest in the world, and while this Matt Hagen is no Joker in terms of popularity or recognisability, this is still a DCU title about a Batman villain.
Clayface had a so-so $19 million opening internationally, and we're still waiting on updated figures from overseas. Domestically, it should end the weekend at around $43.7 million, and if we guesstimate that it will have made upwards of $35 million elsewhere by the end of the weekend to land somewhere between $75 million and $80 million, it still has a long way to go.
Still, a disappointing second weekend won't define Clayface's box office run, and it still has time to make what it needs to be deemed a success. It stands a very good chance of being a modest hit when all is said and done, but whether that's enough for Skydance executives after Supergirl's dismal financial performance remains to be seen.
The top five will be rounded out by Wildwood ($6.8 million), Wicker ($3.5 million), and Street Fighter ($3.3 million).
We concluded our Clayface review by saying, "Tom Rhys Harries shines in Clayface, an uninspired and unoriginal movie that's too light on horror and lacking in comic book personality to be anything but forgettable. It should have been a game-changer for the genre; instead, it's DC's Morbius moment."
Clayface is now playing in theaters.