Avatar: Fire and Ash may have grossed $1.4 billion worldwide. However, after the runaway success of Avatar ($2.9 billion) and Avatar: The Way of Water ($2.3 billion), the threequel was considered a disappointment, especially as it cost $350 million to shoot and an additional $150 million to market.
While the movie still turned a profit, Disney is understandably concerned about continuing to invest in the sci-fi franchise amid concerns of diminishing returns moving forward.
According to The Wrap, while the House of Mouse isn't giving up on Pandora, conversations are taking place about how to make future Avatar movies "cheaper and shorter." The idea is that they would be a less risky investment, especially if the franchise's days of breaking box office records are over.
The trade spoke to a member of the Avatar team, who said, "It’s bulls–t that the movie made $1.5 billion and people are acting like it’s 'Ishtar.' There’s not a guarantee that they’re all going to make $2 billion. The trilogy has made $6.7 billion, which averages more than $2 billion per film."
Another insider pointed the finger at Disney for Avatar: Fire and Ash's failure to recapture the same box office success as the first two movies.
Apparently, they felt the rollout was too similar to Avatar: The Way of Water. The concern was that audiences would feel they'd already seen Fire and Ash, and there's no denying that there was a noticeable lack of buzz ahead of its release in theaters.
"There was no anticipation," one insider told the trade. "They literally used the same playbook [as for 'The Way of Water']. By not making it an event, it crippled the movie."
Despite this level of uncertainty, it's said that scenes for Avatar 3 and Avatar 4 were shot during production of Avatar: Fire and Ash, with around 22% (a very specific number) of the fourth chapter already in the can. Cameron enlisted Rick Jaffa and Amanda Silver to write the second and third movies, with Josh Friedman and Shane Salerno tasked with shaping four and five.
There's even some uncertainty about Disney moving forward with plans to bring Pandora to Disneyland in California. Now, it's thought that a Zootopia attraction will take its place after the sequel easily outgrossed Avatar: Fire and Ash last year.
Doing the rounds to promote the threequel last December, filmmaker James Cameron and the cast talked candidly about Fire and Ash potentially being the last Avatar movie. The director even mused about passing the franchise over to a younger director or finishing his five-movie story as a novel, despite the next two chapters being dated for December 2029 and December 2031.
Can Cameron make his Avatar sequels for less money and with shorter runtimes? And will he even want to? That's the big question right now, but it may be possible when those next instalments are "said to be as radically different from 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' as 'Star Wars' was from 'The Empire Strikes Back.'" Whether that translates to costing less to produce is another matter.
Despite this uncertainty, another Avatar team member was quick to point out, "This time, I could see [Cameron] being like, I’m on a mission. I believe unequivocally that he will finish his five-film saga. Never bet against James Cameron..."